The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the first estimates for the 2007/08 soybean crop on May 9th. While these projections are preliminary and subject to change due to weather, disease and other stresses during the growing season, the values provide some indication of soybean and soybean meal production and use values for the coming season.
The USDA estimates soybean growers will plant 74.8 million acres this spring, which is nearly eighteen percent higher than last year. Assuming a “normal” crop year, USDA is predicting an average 42-bushel yield, which will produce a 3.1 billion bushel soybean crop. Therefore, the total supply of soybeans for crush and export will be about three percent greater than for the 2007/08 crop year. Most of this season’s production gains are offset by lower soybean stocks at the beginning of the crop year. The soybean crush is projected to increase by about one percent and soybean exports at near 2007/08 levels.
Of concern to the feed industry, USDA is projecting the price of soybean meal in the 2008/09 crop year to be in the range of $280-340 per short ton compared to an estimated price of $315 for 2007/08.
|
Soybean Production Data |
|
|
|
Million Acres |
| Crop Year (*) |
2007/08(**) |
2008/09(***) |
%Change |
| Acres Planted |
63.6 |
|
|
74.8 |
|
|
+17.6 |
|
| Acres Harvested |
62.8 |
|
|
73.8 |
|
|
-17.5 |
|
Yield (bushels/acre)
|
41.2 |
|
|
42.1 |
|
|
+2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybean Supply and Use |
|
Million of Bushels |
| Beginning Stocks |
574 |
|
|
145 |
|
|
-74.7 |
|
| Production |
2,585 |
|
|
3,105 |
|
|
+20.1 |
|
| Imports |
10 |
|
|
8 |
|
|
-20.0 |
|
Total Supply
|
3,169 |
|
|
3,258 |
|
|
2.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Crush |
1,840 |
|
|
1,850 |
|
|
+1.1 |
|
| Exports |
1,090 |
|
|
1,050 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
| Seed and Residue |
94 |
|
|
172 |
|
|
+83.0 |
|
Total Use
|
3,024 |
|
|
3,073 |
|
|
+0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybean Meal Production and Use |
|
Million Short Tons |
| Beginning Stocks |
0.351 |
|
|
0.300 |
|
|
-14.5 |
|
| Production |
43.834 |
|
|
43.985 |
|
|
+0.3 |
|
| Imports |
0.165 |
|
|
0.165 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
Total Supply
|
44.350 |
|
|
44.150 |
|
|
+0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Domestic Use |
35.100 |
|
|
35.350 |
|
|
+0.7 |
|
| Exports |
8.950 |
|
|
8.800 |
|
|
-1.7 |
|
Total Use
|
44.050 |
|
|
44.150 |
|
|
+0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Average price ($/ton) |
|
$315. |
$280-340. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
(*) Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for meal.
(**) Estimate
(***) Projection
Reference: U.S.D.A. Economic Research Service, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates; WASDE-458, May 09, 2008
U.S. oilseed production for the coming crop year is projected at 93 million tons, up 16% from last year. Most of the increased oilseed production is attributed to increased soybean production. USDA is predicting that sunflower and peanut acreage will increase slightly and canola and cottonseed production will decline in this year.
Bottom line is that soybeans will continue to supply most of the protein needed for livestock and poultry feeds since increases in other oilseeds are not anticipated.
|
Estimated Oilseed Acreage |
|
(Millions of acres) |
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| Canola |
1.044 |
|
1.183 |
|
1.010 |
|
| Cotton (ssed) |
15.274 |
|
10.827 |
|
9.390 |
|
| Flax (seed) |
0.813 |
|
0.354 |
|
0.360 |
|
| Peanut |
1.243 |
|
1.230 |
|
1.430 |
|
| Soybean |
75.522 |
|
63.631 |
|
74.794 |
|
| Sunflower |
1.950 |
|
2.060 |
|
2.153 |
|
|
|
Reference: www.nass.usda,gov/QuickStats/ |
|